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2024 Japanese general election

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2024 Japanese general election
← 2021 27 October 2024 Next →
All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered103,880,749 (Decrease1.39%)[1]
Turnout53.84% (55,928,801)[1] Decrease2.13pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Ishiba Shigeru 20241001 (cropped).jpg
Yosuke Suzuki with Yoshihiko Noda 2024-10-20(3) (cropped).jpg
Nobuyuki_Baba_20221021.jpg
Leader Shigeru Ishiba Yoshihiko Noda Nobuyuki Baba
Party Liberal Democratic CDP Ishin
Leader since 27 September 2024 23 September 2024 30 November 2021
Leader's seat Tottori 1st Chiba 14th Osaka 17th
Last election 259 seats, 34.66% 96 seats, 20.00% 41 seats, 14.01%
Seats won 191 148 38
Seat change Decrease68 Increase52 Decrease3
Popular vote 14,582,690 11,564,217 5,105,127
Percentage 26.73% 21.20% 9.36%
Swing Decrease7.93pp Increase1.20pp Decrease4.65pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Yūichirō Tamaki on May 31, 2024.jpg
Keiichi_Ishii_20230315teigen_komei2.jpg
Taro Yamamoto 2022-6-26(1)(cropped).jpg
Leader Yuichiro Tamaki Keiichi Ishii Tarō Yamamoto
Party DPP Komeito Reiwa
Leader since 7 May 2018 28 September 2024 1 April 2019
Leader's seat Kagawa 2nd Saitama 14th (defeated) Did not stand[a]
Last election 11 seats, 4.51% 32 seats, 12.38% 3 seats, 3.86%
Seats won 28 24 9
Seat change Increase17 Decrease8 Increase6
Popular vote 6,172,427 5,964,415 3,805,060
Percentage 11.32% 10.93% 6.98%
Swing Increase6.81pp Decrease1.45pp Increase3.12pp
  Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party
 
Tomoko Tamura 2024-10-26(4) (cropped).jpg
Sohei Kamiya 2023-2-19(1) (cropped).jpg
Naoki Hyakuta cropped 2 Naoki Hyakuta and Kiyoaki Kawanami 20171029.jpg
Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta
Party Communist Sanseitō Conservative
Leader since 18 January 2024 30 August 2023 1 September 2023
Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand[a] Kinki PR block (defeated)
Last election 10 seats, 7.25% Did not contest New party
Seats won 8 3 3
Seat change Decrease2 New New
Popular vote 3,362,966 1,870,347 1,145,622
Percentage 6.16% 3.43% 2.10%
Swing Decrease1.09pp New New
Prime Minister before election

Shigeru Ishiba
Liberal Democratic

Elected Prime Minister

TBD

The 50th general election of the House of Representatives[2] was held in Japan on 27 October 2024 due to the early dissolution of the House of Representatives,[3] the lower house of the National Diet of Japan, by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Voting took place in all constituencies, including proportional blocks, to elect members of the House of Representatives.

The election was held just a month after Ishiba took office as prime minister, after winning a heated contest in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election on 27 September following the resignation of Fumio Kishida as party leader due to his low approval rating amid the party-wide slush fund corruption scandal. The dissolution of the Diet was held eight days after the prime minister's inauguration and 26 days before the voting day, both the shortest since the end of World War II.

Amid continued public discontent with the slush fund scandal, the governing LDP and its coalition partner Komeito lost their parliamentary majority in the lower house for the first time since 2009, with the LDP suffering its second-worst result in its history, securing only 191 seats. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the main opposition party led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, achieved its best result in its history, increasing its seat count from 96 to 148. This was the first general election in Japan since the 1955 election wherein no party secured at least 200 seats.

The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) won 28 seats, surpassing Komeito to become the fourth-largest party in the chamber. Komeito suffered further losses including losing all of its seats in Osaka at the expense of the Osaka-based Ishin no Kai as well as the party's newly elected leader Keiichi Ishii losing his seat. Smaller opposition parties also gained seats, including left-wing populist party Reiwa Shinsengumi, right-wing populist party Sanseitō and the newly-formed far-right Conservative Party.

Background

[edit]

Kishida's resignation amid scandals and unpopularity

[edit]
See also: 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida resigned on 1 October.

Since the last general election in 2021, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was caught in a series of political crises, firstly the assassination of Shinzo Abe in 2022, which led to the heightened scrutiny against the allegations surrounding the Unification Church and its link to his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The close relationship between the party and the church caused a drop in approval rating of the Kishida cabinet,[4][5] and anti-government protests, leading to the first reshuffle of his cabinet on 10 August 2022 and second reshuffle in September 2023 to remove cabinet members affiliated with the church.[6][7]

The Kishida government was further damaged by the party-wide slush fund corruption scandal in late 2023, which saw his approval rate drop to 23% as of 13 December 2023, the lowest such rating any prime minister had had since the LDP returned to power in 2012.[8] By 22 December, Kishida's approval rate had further declined to 17%.[9] On 18 January 2024, Kishida announced his intention to dissolve his Kōchikai faction as a result of the scandal.[10] The following day on 19 January, the Shisuikai and Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai factions announced their dissolutions.[11]

Kishida never recovered from the record-low approval ratings amid fallout from the scandal. His party lost all three seats up for election in the April 2024 by-elections, which were previously held by LDP or LDP-affiliated independents.[12] On 14 August 2024, Kishida announced that he would step down as party president, thereby not seeking re-election in September.[13]

Ishiba's call for early election

[edit]
This article is part of
a series about
Shigeru Ishiba
  • Leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party
  • Premiership
  • Elections
See also: 2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) presidential election

On 30 September 2024, former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, who won the heated nine-way contest in the party presidential election on 27 September, officially announced that he would call an early election to be held on 27 October, a year ahead of the expiration of the current term, to seek confidence from the people. After his inauguration as the prime minister on 1 October, the House of Representatives was dissolved on 9 October, with the election being announced on the 15th, and voting to take place on the 27th.[14]

The election is held after the replacement of major party leaders. The LDP elected Ishiba as new leader on 27 September, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on 23 September, Nobuyuki Baba took leadership of Nippon Ishin no Kai on 30 November 2021, Keiichi Ishii was elected leader of Komeito on 28 September, and Tomoko Tamura became leader of the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) on 18 January 2024. It is the first time since 2012 where all three of the leading parties in the Diet have had new leadership entering the next election.

The regular election to the House of Councillors, the other house of the national legislature which cannot be dissolved and is thus on fixed terms, will take place in 2025; but, also on 27 October, a by-election to the House of Councillors will be held in Iwate. On the prefectural level, the gubernatorial elections in Toyama and Okayama had already been set for 27 October.

This was the first dissolution of the Diet since 14 October 2021. The dissolution was eight days after the prime minister's inauguration and the voting and counting 26 days later that, both the shortest since the end of World War II.[15]

Electoral system

[edit]

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting: 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party status (≥5 Diet members, or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election) are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present in the party list, such that if they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats; but, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Polling stations are open from 07:00 to 20:00 JST.[16]

Reapportionment

[edit]

The electoral districts will be readjusted according to the results of the 2020 Japan census. Originally, it was intended to be readjusted for the last election, but it was held in the existing constituencies not long after the census results came out.[17][18]

Newly created seats

[edit]

Ten new districts and three new block seats will be created.

  1. Tokyo-26th
  2. Tokyo-27th
  3. Tokyo-28th
  4. Tokyo-29th
  5. Tokyo-30th
  6. Kanagawa-19th
  7. Kanagawa-20th
  8. Saitama-16th
  9. Aichi-16th
  10. Chiba-14th
  11. 18th Tokyo block seat
  12. 19th Tokyo block seat
  13. 23rd Minami-Kanto block seat

Seats to be eliminated

[edit]

Ten districts and three block seats will be eliminated.

  1. Hiroshima-7th
  2. Miyagi-6th
  3. Niigata-6th
  4. Fukushima-5th
  5. Okayama-5th
  6. Shiga-4th
  7. Yamaguchi-4th
  8. Ehime-4th
  9. Nagasaki-4th
  10. Wakayama-3rd
  11. 13th Tohoku block seat
  12. 11th Hokurikushinetsu block seat
  13. 11th Chugoku block seat

Political parties and candidates

[edit]
See also: List of political parties in Japan
Parties Leader Ideology Seats Status
Last election At dissolution[14]
Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba Conservatism
Japanese nationalism
259 / 465
247 / 465
 Governing coalition
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Yoshihiko Noda Liberalism
96 / 465
98 / 465
 Opposition
Nippon Ishin no Kai Nobuyuki Baba Right-wing populism
Economic liberalism
41 / 465
44 / 465
Komeito Keiichi Ishii Buddhist democracy
32 / 465
32 / 465
 Governing coalition
Japanese Communist Party Tomoko Tamura Communism
10 / 465
10 / 465
 Opposition
Democratic Party For the People Yuichiro Tamaki Conservatism
11 / 465
7 / 465
Reiwa Shinsengumi Tarō Yamamoto Progressivism
Left-wing populism
3 / 465
3 / 465
Social Democratic Party Mizuho Fukushima Social democracy
1 / 465
1 / 465
Sanseitō Sohei Kamiya Right-wing populism
Ultraconservatism
0 / 465
1 / 465
Nonpartisan and others N/A N/A
12 / 465
22 / 465

As of 15 October, there were 314 women competing in the election, which exceeded the number recorded in the 2009 election. The proportion of women in the electoral race also increased from 5.7% in 2021 to 23.4%. There were also 136 candidates who were related to previous officeholders, making up 10% of all candidates. The LDP accounted for 97 of them, equivalent to 28.4% of all its candidates, while the CDP had 27 candidates, equivalent to 11.4% of its list.[19]

Governing coalition

[edit]
Single-member districts candidates
Reference

On 6 October, Shigeru Ishiba indicated that he would not endorse any lawmakers who have been suspended from party membership over the LDP slush fund scandal. Ishiba also indicated that those who had involved scandal, whether they had been sanctioned or not, would be banned from running double candidacy in single-seat districts and proportional representation blocs, which was expected to affect at least 30 such candidates.[20] He explained that it was a response to the "criticism and anger" of the public which were stronger than they expected.[21]

On 9 October, the LDP officially pulled its endorsement of the following 12 members:[22]

Party membership suspended:

Suspended from party positions for one year which still in effect:

Suspended from party positions for six months which now expired:

Received disciplinary reprimand:

No punishment received:

On 11 October, three members who were involved in the scandal, all from the former Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai faction, including former Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Mio Sugita, who was suspended from party positions for six months, former Vice-Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Asako Omi, who was given a reprimand, and former Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Kentaro Uesugi, who did not receive any disciplinary action, would withdraw their candidacies in the election.[24]

Keiichi Ishii, leader of the Komeito which was LDP's junior coalition partner, said on 8 October that the party would not recommend LDP lawmakers who were not officially endorsed in the election,[25] but decided to recommend Nishimura and Mitsubayashi on 9 October despite LDP decision based on the wishes of the party's local organizations.[26]

Opposition parties

[edit]
Number of registered candidates by party[27]
Party Before election Const. PR Running in both Total
LDP 247[28] 266 76 209 342
CDP 98 207 30 204 237
Ishin 44 163 1 145 164
Komei 32 11 39 0 50
JCP 10 213 23 12 236
DPP 7 41 1 41 42
Reiwa 3 19 16 16 35
SDP 1 10 7 10 17
Sansei 1 85 10 12 95
Mintsuku 0 6 0 1 6
Hoshu 0 4 26 0 30
CES 0 0 2 0 2
Ind./Oth. 22 88 – – 88
Total 465 1,113 231 650 1,344

After holding talks with the right-leaning Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Nobuyuki Baba and Democratic Party for the People (DPP) leader Yuichiro Tamaki on 3 October in an attempt to unifying opposition candidates for constituencies to prevent the LDP and its Komeito ally from securing a majority, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda on 4 October switched his stance to aiming to form a government on its own by filling more candidates in the proportional representation blocks.[29][30]

The CDP and the left-wing pacifist JCP also had differences over their stances on the security-related laws, as Noda aimed at winning over "moderate conservatives" critical of the LDP government, by formulating more middle-of-the-road foreign policy and security measures including the continuation of the laws, while the JCP, which was fielding as many as 216 candidates in the single-seat constituencies, advocated for the repeal of the laws under the banner of the opposition coalition during the 2016 House of Councillors election.[31]

The Nikkei on 11 October reported that the opposition could only manage to have 55 constituencies where they would be an one-on-one battle with the LDP, under 20% of the 289 single-seat constituencies as compared to the 140 constituencies in the previous election in 2021. There would be 81 constituencies where CDP, Ishin and other parties compete, and 67 where CDP competes with opposition parties other than Ishin.[32]

On 3 October, Seiji Maehara, leader of the Free Education For All which commanded four seats in the Diet, announced that his party would join the Nippon Ishin no Kai after months of talks for merger and would run as Ishin-endorsed candidates in the upcoming election. However, House of Representatives member Atsushi Suzuki, who would run in the Kanagawa 18th district, did not join the party, due to its competition with a Ishin candidate in the same constituency. On the same day he announced that he would run as an official candidate for the Sanseitō party.[33] Suzuki later decided that he would run in the Southern Kanto proportional representation block with the Sanseitō's endorsement.[34]

Campaign

[edit]

A week before the election, a Kyodo News survey on 20 October showed that the support for the CDP and other opposition parties was growing steadily against that of the ruling LDP, with 22.6% of the respondents planned to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation block, 14.1% for the CDP, narrowing the gap between the two main parties to 8.5 percentage points from 14.0 points in the last survey. 9.7% of respondents wanted to see the ruling and opposition parties to be evenly split, while 20.5% said they wanted to see the LDP out of power, up 5.4 points from the previous survey.[35]

Another poll on 21 October by the Kyodo News suggested the LDP-Komeito coalition might lose its majority, the first time since 2009 Japanese general election, while the CDP could win more than 100 seats in the single-seat districts, up sharply from 60 before the election, and more seats under proportional representation. The Nippon Ishin no Kai was projected to lose some of its 43 seats, while the DPP could increase its seats from seven before the race due to greater support in the proportional representation block, with the JCP building on the nine seats it held.[36]

On 20 October, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama floated the idea of expanding the coalition framework by "holding discussions with political parties that have the same policies and are committed to developing the country". Although he said that he did not have a specific party in mind, there were "whispers" within the party that the conservative-leaning Ishin and DPP could be new coalition partners.[37]

Ishin Secretary-General Fujita Fumitake on 23 October said it was impossible for the time being for his party to form a coalition with the LDP and Komeito if the ruling coalition lost its majority.[38] He also declined to form a coalition with the CDP given that the LDP and Komeito Party did not have a majority, citing differences in their security, energy, and economic policies.[39]

As the possibility of LDP losing power became likely, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba began to question the CDP's ability to govern, reminding voters the "nightmare Democratic Party administration",[40] CDP's predecessor which ruled from 2009–2012, while CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, who was also then the Democratic prime minister, stepped up his criticism of the LDP slush fund scandal and called for a change of government.[41]

Going into the last week of the campaign, each party began to narrow down the electoral districts which were fiercely contested, with their party leaders and executives rallying their support in those districts.[42] The LDP designated about 40 single-seat constituencies with close races as key constituencies.[43] Ishin aimed to retain their stronghold of Osaka, where it faced off against Komeito,[44] while also hoping to expand its support outside of Kansai. The JCP and SDP hoped to maintain its Okinawa electoral district seats and expanded their proportional representation votes.[42]

On 23 October, the JCP's daily newspaper Shimbun Akahata accused the LDP of providing funds to the party's local branches headed by scandal-hit candidates which were not endorsed by the party, with 20 million yen ($130,000) to each chapter.[45] Ishiba insisted that the funds were not provided to candidates but to the branches as "activity expenses", with the party dismissing the report as having "distorted the facts and caused a misunderstanding".[46] CDP leader Noda criticised the LDP for "deceiving voters" and that it "should never be done".[47] Koichi Hagiuda, whose branch received the "activity expenses", announced on 25 October that he had repaid the 20 million yen.[48]

Election violence

[edit]

On the morning of 19 October, Atsunobu Usuda, a 49-year-old man from Kawaguchi in Saitama Prefecture, threw firebombs at the LDP headquarters and crashed a van into a barrier at the nearby Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo. No injury was reported but a police vehicle was partially burned after Usuda threw around five objects at the LDP headquarters. According to his father, Usuda had previously been active in anti-nuclear protests and had also expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's electoral system, where candidates are required to deposit hefty sums of money to stand.[49]

Speaking during a campaign in Satsumasendai, Kagoshima Prefecture on the same day, Prime Minister Ishiba said that "democracy must never succumb to violence" and pledged to do "everything possible to ensure that this election is not ruined by violence".[50]

Debates

[edit]

The LDP slush fund scandal became a major issue during the debate hosted by the Japan National Press Club on 12 October. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda criticised Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's dissolution of the Diet as a "cover-up" of the scandal and that "a change of government is the greatest political reform". Ishiba said that he would consider abolishing the policy activity expenses in the future, but maintained that "it is legal under the current system" and the party would not use it "restrainedly" when questioned by DPP leader, Yuichiro Tamaki.[51] Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba also criticised Komeito's decision to recommend two former LDP lawmakers which were not endorsed by the LDP due to the scandal. Komeito leader, Ishii Keiichi explained that the decision was based on criteria such as "the understanding of local [Komeito] party members and supporters".[52]

Several opposition parties called for the reduction or abolition of the consumption tax, with the CDP suggesting a "tax credit with benefits" that would essentially refund part of the consumption tax by combining tax credits and benefits for low- and middle-income earners. But Ishiba argued that the country needed a stable source of funding for social security going forward and would not consider lowering the tax.[53]

Noda suggested that Japan should participate as an observer in the Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in order to achieve nuclear abolition, while Ishiba stressed the functionality of nuclear deterrence.[52] Noda also said he would abolish the unconstitutional parts of the security-related laws if the CDP gained power.[54] Baba questioned Ishiba's determination and feasibility in reviewing the U.S.–Japan Status of Forces Agreement, a pledge made during the recent LDP leadership race.[52]

2024 Japanese general election debates
Date Host Format Venue
  •  P  Present
  •  I  Invited
  •  S  Surrogate
  •  NI  Not invited
  •  A  Absent
  •  N  No debate
LDP CDP Ishin Komei JCP DPP Reiwa SDP Sansei
12 October Japan National Press Club Debate Japan National Press Club, Tokyo[55] P
Ishiba 		P
Noda 		P
Baba 		P
Ishii 		P
Tamura 		P
Tamaki 		P
Yamamoto 		NI NI
13 October NHK (Nichiyō Tōron) Debate NHK Broadcasting Center, Tokyo[56] P
Ishiba 		P
Noda 		P
Baba 		P
Ishii 		P
Tamura 		P
Tamaki 		P
Yamamoto 		P
Fukushima 		P
Kamiya
20 October NHK (Nichiyō Tōron) Debate NHK Broadcasting Center, Tokyo[57] S
Moriyama 		S
Ogawa 		S
Fujita 		S
Nishida 		S
Koike 		S
Shimba 		S
Takai 		S
Otsubaki 		P
Kamiya

Opinion polling

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Japanese general election
LOESS curve of the voter intention polling for the next Japanese general election with a seven-day average.

Seat projections

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2024 Japanese general election § Seat projections.[edit]

Color key:   Exit poll

Seat projections from analysts (district seats + proportional representation)
Analysts Publication/
Newspapers 		Fieldwork date LDP CDP NIK KMT JCP DPFP REI DIY SDP CPJ Ind./
Oth. 		LDP
Majority 		Gov. Opp. Gov.
Majority
Election results 27 Oct 2024 191
(132+59) 		148
(104+44) 		38
(23+15) 		24
(4+20) 		8
(1+7) 		28
(11+17) 		9
(0+9) 		3
(0+3) 		1
(1+0) 		3
(1+2) 		12
(12+0) 		–42 215 250 –18
NHK 27 Oct 2024 153–219 128–191 28–45 21–35 7–10 20–33 6–14 0–4 1 1–4 9–17 – 174–254 200–319 –
JNN 27 Oct 2024 181 159 35 27 10 27 7 3 1 – 15 –52 208 257 –25
Kaoru Matsuda Zakzak 24 Oct 2024 203
(144+59) 		144
(99+45) 		38
(19+19) 		25
(6+19) 		11
(1+10) 		19
(6+13) 		6
(0+6) 		3
(0+3) 		1
(1+0) 		3
(1+2) 		12
(12+0) 		–30 228 237 –5
Masashi Kubota[1] Shūkan Bunshun 23 Oct 2024 197
(136+61) 		153
(109+44) 		42
(20+22) 		25
(6+19) 		12
(1+11) 		11
(4+7) 		6
(0+6) 		2
(0+2) 		1
(1+0) 		5
(1+4) 		11
(11+0) 		–36 222 243 –11
Mainichi[2] 22–23 Oct 2024 171–225 126–177 29–40 23–29 7–9 23–29 6–7 0–1 1 – 11–23[c] – 194–254 203–287 –
JNN 22–23 Oct 2024 ~195 ~138 <43 <32 <10 >11 – – 1–2 >5 – – <227 ~232 –
Sankei/FNN 19–20 Oct 2024 ~196 ~148 <43 ~22 >10 ~22 >3 – – – – – ~218 ~247 –17
Asahi 19–20 Oct 2024 200[d]
(144+56) 		138
(97+41) 		38
(19+19) 		25
(5+20) 		12
(1+11) 		21
(7+14) 		11
(0+11) 		2
(0+2) 		1
(1+0) 		– 17[e]
(15+2) 		–33 225 240 –8
Hiroshi Miura BS11 18 Oct 2024 235
(170+65) 		118
(77+41) 		38
(13+25) 		29
(8+21) 		9
(0+9) 		12
(5+7) 		5
(0+5) 		1
(0+1) 		2
(1+1) 		2
(1+1) 		14
(14+0) 		2 264 201 31
Masashi Kubota Shūkan Bunshun 18 Oct 2024 204
(135+69) 		145
(106+39) 		45
(23+22) 		28
(6+22) 		11
(1+10) 		11
(4+7) 		6
(0+6) 		1
(0+1) 		1
(1+0) 		– 13[f]
(13+0) 		–29 232 233 –1
Yomiuri/NNN[3] Nikkei 15–16 Oct 2024 231[g]
(167+64) 		130
(85+45) 		32
(17+15) 		30
(7+23) 		12
(1+11) 		12
(5+7) 		6
(0+6) 		1
(0+1) 		2
(1+1) 		4
(1+3) 		5
(5+0) 		–2 261 204 28
Mainichi/JNN 15–16 Oct 2024 203–250 117–163 28–34 24–29 5–6 13–20 6 0 1 – 12–14 – 227–279 182–244 –
Tadaoki Nogami Nikkan Gendai 15 Oct 2024 202[h]
(148+54) 		150
(99+51) 		49
(21+28) 		28
(8+20) 		10
(1+9) 		11
(4+7) 		4
(0+4) 		1
(0+1) 		2
(1+1) 		1
(0+1) 		7
(7+0) 		–31 230 235 –3
Hiroshi Miura BS Prime News 15 Oct 2024 228–258 98–117 44–46 24–32 10 – – – – – – – 257 208 24
Masahiko Hisae 230 130 45 28 10 – – – – – – –3 258 207 25
Hiroshi Miura Sports Hochi 14 Oct 2024 229 116 47 29 10 12 5 0 2 1 14 –4 258 207 25
Tadaoki Nogami AERA
(only district seats) 		13 Oct 2024 153 91 23 6 0 5 0 0 1 1 9 – 159 130 –
Koichi Kakutani 152 85 23 8 1 4 0 0 1 1 14 – 160 129 –
Kaoru Matsuda Zakzak 9 Oct 2024 226
(165+61) 		122
(79+43) 		45
(19+26) 		29
(8+21) 		11
(1+10) 		11
(4+7) 		5
(0+5) 		2
(0+2) 		1
(1+0) 		2
(1+1) 		11
(11+0) 		–7 255 210 22
Hiroshi Miura Sunday Mainichi 8 Oct 2024 234
(166+68) 		112
(74+38) 		43
(17+26) 		30
(9+21) 		10
(1+9) 		12
(5+7) 		5
(0+5) 		0
(0+0) 		2
(1+1) 		1
(1+0) 		16[i]
(15+1) 		1 264 201 31
Tadaoki Nogami Nikkan Gendai 6 Oct 2024 202
(147+55) 		148
(97+51) 		54
(26+28) 		25
(5+20) 		10
(1+9) 		12
(5+7) 		4
(0+4) 		0
(0+0) 		2
(1+1) 		1
(0+1) 		7
(7+0) 		–31 227 238 –6
Masashi Kubota Shūkan Bunshun 3 Oct 2024 219
(147+72) 		131
(94+37) 		50
(24+26) 		25
(6+19) 		10
(1+9) 		11
(4+7) 		6
(0+6) 		0
(0+0) 		1
(1+0) 		– 12[j]
(12+0) 		–14 244 221 11
Kaoru Matsuda Zakzak 27 May 2024 205
(149+56) 		151
(102+49) 		45
(20+25) 		25
(5+20) 		10
(1+9) 		10
(5+5) 		6
(0+6) 		4
(0+4) 		1
(1+0) 		2
(0+2) 		6[k]
(6+0) 		–28 230 235 –3
Tadaoki Nogami Nikkan Gendai 5 May 2024 184
(133+51) 		161
(114+47) 		58
(25+33) 		23
(3+20) 		11
(1+10) 		10
(5+5) 		6
(0+6) 		1
(0+1) 		2
(1+1) 		– 9[l]
(7+2) 		–49 207 258 –26
2021 general election 31 Oct 2021 259
(187+72) 		96
(57+39) 		41
(16+25) 		32
(9+23) 		10
(1+9) 		11
(6+5) 		3
(0+3) 		– 1
(1+0) 		– 12
(12+0) 		26 291 174 58

Results

[edit]
Cartogram of single-member constituencies and proportional blocs

Voter turnout was 53.84%, around two percentage points down from the previous election in 2021 and the third lowest in the postwar era,[58] while the number of female candidates reached the record high of 73,[59] equivalent to 16% of the House of Representatives' composition.[60]

The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition lost their majority for the first time since the 2009 general election. Although the LDP still remained the largest party, the coalition fell short of the 233 seats needed for a majority, securing only 215.[61] Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he accepted the "harsh judgement" of the voters "humbly and solemnly" and pledged to become a political party that was "more in line with the will of the people".[62]

74% of voters in a Kyodo News exit poll considered the slush fund scandal when casting their ballots, with 68% of the LDP supporters also thought so.[63] Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii also pointed out that the payment of 20 million yen to party branches headed by the scandal-hit candidates "had a significant impact on the election campaign".[64]

At least two LDP cabinet members lost in the election, Minister of Justice Hideki Makihara and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Yasuhiro Ozato, who lost in the Saitama 5th district, to former CDP leader Yukio Edano, and Kagoshima 3rd district respectively.[65] Former Minister of Education Hakubun Shimomura, along with about half of the some 10 who were denied endorsement and were forced to run as independents, lost their seats.[61]

Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii—who took the post only a month prior to the election—lost his Saitama 14th district seat, becoming the first head of the coalition partner to suffer a defeat since former Komeito leader Akihiro Ota's loss in 2009.[61] Komeito were also defeated by Ishin candidates in all electoral districts in Osaka, including the 3rd district, where Deputy Leader Sato Shigeki lost his seat.[66]

The CDP became the biggest winner in the election, gaining 52 seats and jumping from 96 seats in the previous election to 148 seats, with leader Yoshihiko Noda aiming to form a government replacing the LDP with other opposition parties.[67] The DPP quadrupled its seats from seven to 28, but lost one proportional representation seat in the Northern Kanto block and two in the Tokai block because several candidates on the list were elected in the single-seat constituencies.[68]

Nippon Ishin no Kai, also known as the Japan Restoration Party, faced fierce challenges outside its Kansai stronghold which saw its losing about three million votes from the previous election nationally, but was able to win all 19 single-seat constituencies in Osaka, ensuring the party's monopoly in the prefecture.[69]

Reiwa Shinsengumi, and its party leader Taro Yamamoto, more than tripled their seats, gaining nine from the three they held previously. Yamamoto stated that he wished to gain more in the future.[62] Reiwa also managed to pass the JCP for the first time, which fell to eight seats for the first time since 2009 and failed to make gains on the proportional blocks across the country. JCP leader Tomoko Tamura commented by saying that "despite losses, we were able to bring the 20 million yen to everyone's attention by running candidates in every district."[62]

Despite falling short of its goal of winning five seats, the newly established Conservative Party of Japan gained three seats and entered the Diet for the first time, with former Nagoya mayor Takashi Kawamura being declared the winner in the Aichi 1st district and two other candidates won the Tokai proportional representation block and Kinki proportional representation block.[70] By receiving more than 2% of the votes in the proportional representation blocks, the party was officially recognised as a political party by law and would be given political party subsidies and would be able to fill duplicate candidates to run in both single-seat constituency and proportional representation blocks and appear in political broadcasts.[71]

Japan election 2024
PartyProportionalConstituencyTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Liberal Democratic Party14,582,69026.735920,867,76238.46132191–69
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan11,564,22221.204415,740,86029.01104148+52
Nippon Ishin no Kai5,105,1279.36156,048,10411.152338–3
Democratic Party For the People6,172,43411.32172,349,5844.331128+17
Komeito5,964,41510.9320730,4011.35424–8
Reiwa Shinsengumi3,805,0606.989425,4450.7809+6
Japanese Communist Party3,362,9666.1673,695,8076.8118–2
Sanseitō1,870,3473.4331,357,1892.5003New
Conservative Party of Japan1,145,6222.10295,6130.1813New
Social Democratic Party934,5981.710283,2870.52110
Collaborative Party23,7840.04029,2750.05000
Association to Consider the Euthanasia System18,4550.03000New
Conservative Party of Japan (Ishihama)21,6710.0400New
Kawaguchi Vigilante Group9,3480.0200New
Third Way Party6,0330.0100New
Party that Ends the Liberal Democratic Party4,4240.0100New
Party of the Heart1,7490.0000New
Money for Everyone5300.0000New
Other parties60,2240.1100–
Independents2,534,5714.6712120
Total54,549,720100.0017654,261,877100.002894650
Valid votes54,549,72097.5354,261,87797.01
Invalid/blank votes1,379,0792.471,672,5772.99
Total votes55,928,799100.0055,934,454100.00
Registered voters/turnout103,880,74953.84103,880,74953.84
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

By prefecture

[edit]
Prefecture Total
seats 		Seats won
LDP CDP Ishin DPP Komei JCP Hoshu SDP Ind.
Aichi 16 3 8 4 1
Akita 3 1 1 1
Aomori 3 2 1
Chiba 14 7 7
Ehime 3 2 1
Fukui 2 1 1
Fukuoka 11 7 2 1 1
Fukushima 4 1 3
Gifu 5 4 1
Gunma 5 5
Hiroshima 6 3 1 1 1
Hokkaido 12 3 9
Hyōgo 12 7 2 2 1
Ibaraki 7 3 1 1 2
Ishikawa 3 2 1
Iwate 3 1 2
Kagawa 3 1 1 1
Kagoshima 4 1 2 1
Kanagawa 20 9 11
Kōchi 2 2
Kumamoto 4 4
Kyoto 6 2 2 1 1
Mie 4 2 2
Miyagi 5 1 4
Miyazaki 3 2 1
Nagano 5 2 3
Nagasaki 3 2 1
Nara 3 2 1
Niigata 5 5
Ōita 3 1 2
Okayama 4 3 1
Okinawa 4 2 1 1
Osaka 19 19
Saga 2 2
Saitama 16 8 6 2
Shiga 3 2 1
Shimane 2 1 1
Shizuoka 8 4 3 1
Tochigi 5 3 2
Tokushima 2 2
Tokyo 30 11 15 1 3
Tottori 2 2
Toyama 3 3
Wakayama 2 1 1
Yamagata 3 3
Yamaguchi 3 3
Yamanashi 2 1 1
Total 289 132 104 23 11 4 1 1 1 12

By PR block

[edit]
PR block Total
seats 		Seats won[72]
LDP % CDP % Komei % DPP % Ishin % Reiwa % JCP % Sansei % Hoshu %
Chūgoku 10 5 35.9% 3 19.5% 1 12.0% 1 10.5% 0 6.4% 0 5.9% 0 5.1% 0 3.0% – –
Hokkaido 8 3 26.8% 3 29.0% 1 10.6% 1 8.0% 0 4.0% 0 7.4% 0 7.1% 0 2.4% 0 2.6%
Hokuriku–Shinetsu 10 4 32.4% 3 25.0% 1 8.0% 1 10.4% 1 7.0% 0 6.7% 0 5.6% 0 3.1% – –
Kinki (Kansai) 28 6 20.8% 4 14.0% 3 11.6% 2 8.3% 7 23.3% 2 6.3% 2 7.3% 1 4.0% 1 3.3%
Kyushu 20 7 28.6% 4 20.3% 3 14.6% 2 9.5% 1 6.5% 1 7.8% 1 4.7% 1 4.7% – –
Northern Kanto 19 7 27.5% 5 22.0% 3 11.6% 1 11.8% 1 6.7% 1 7.2% 1 6.1% 0 3.0% 0 2.5%
Shikoku 6 3 31.0% 1 18.1% 1 12.7% 1 15.1% 0 6.7% 0 6.2% 0 5.7% 0 2.9% – –
Southern Kanto 23 7 25.4% 6 23.7% 2 10.2% 3 12.6% 2 7.5% 1 6.6% 1 6.1% 1 3.7% 0 2.7%
Tohoku 12 5 31.4% 4 26.3% 1 9.7% 1 10.5% 0 4.4% 1 7.2% 0 5.9% 0 2.5% – –
Tokai 21 7 26.4% 6 22.6% 2 10.2% 1 13.2% 1 6.6% 2 7.8% 1 5.1% 0 2.8% 1 3.9%
Tokyo 19 5 23.6% 5 20.6% 2 9.0% 3 14.9% 2 8.1% 1 7.1% 1 7.9% 0 3.8% 0 3.2%
Total 176 59 26.7% 44 21.2% 20 10.9% 17 11.3% 15 9.4% 9 7.0% 7 6.2% 3 3.4% 2 2.1%

Aftermath

[edit]

After the election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed his desire to continue in his position, saying at a press conference that he would "fulfill his responsibilities by tackling the current severe challenges".[73] At a press conference on 28 October, Ishiba also said that it was "essential that people realize that the LDP has visibly changed" and announced the abolition of policy activity expenses.[74]

LDP's election campaign committee chairman Shinjiro Koizumi resigned from his position on 28 October to take responsibility for the party's disastrous performance.[75] Hideki Makihara, the incumbent Minister of Justice who lost in Saitama 5th district and failed to be reinstated through proportional representation, indicated his intention to step down as minister.[76]

Despite Ishiba's decision to remain as party leader, LDP Councillors Kimi Onoda and Hiroshi Yamada and former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, all considered close to former Minister of State for Economic Security Takaichi Sanae who was the main rival to Ishiba in the leadership election a month ago, called on the party executives to bear responsibilities.[74]

Major newspapers Sankei Shimbun, Yomiuri Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun all ran editorials in their morning editions calling for Ishiba to step down as prime minister, while Mainichi Shimbun raised question about the feasibility of Ishiba's enthusiasm for reform.[77] A Kyodo News survey also showed on 29 October that the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet fell from 50.7% before the election to 32.1% after the vote, although only 28.6% said Ishiba should resign, as compared to 65.7% of the respondents felt it was unnecessary.[78]

For Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii who lost his parliamentary seat only a month after he became party leader, he mentioned on 28 October the possibility of resigning, saying that "there will be many difficulties in continuing as leader" after losing his seat.[73]

Ishin, which saw its proportional representation vote count fall by about three million from the previous election, also faced an outpouring of criticism from local assembly members in its home base of Osaka, who blamed the party's initial decision to align itself with the LDP on amending the Political Funds Control Law for the "nationwide headwinds".[79] The prefectural assembly group of the Osaka Restoration Association, regional party of Ishin, called on the party executives to bear responsibility for the worse-than-expected results in the proportional votes and nationally and hold a party leadership election.[80]

Government formation

[edit]

After the election result showed the LDP-Komeito coalition falling short of a majority by 18 seats, the LDP party executive had initially considered immediately endorsing the scandal-hit LDP candidates who had been elected as independents, though the move would not be enough to gain a majority. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on 28 October expressed caution, saying a decision had to be made based on whether the party "can gain the understanding of the people".[73]

While confirming the LDP-Komeito coalition during a meeting with Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii, Ishiba on 28 October ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the opposition parties,[81] but expressed his intention to gain Ishin and DPP cooperation through a "partial coalition" that cooperates on individual policies and bills on economic measures and other issues.[82]

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, the largest winner in the election, said he wanted to prioritize cooperation with Ishin, DPP and JCP, all of which submitted a motion of no confidence against the Ishiba Cabinet in the recent extraordinary Diet session, and he planned to speed up coordination in the future.[73][83] Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the SDP which only won one seat, signalled a "strong possibility" to vote for Noda in the prime ministerial election, which the party had done in an extraordinary Diet session a month prior.[84]

Both the DPP and the Ishin had ruled out joining an LDP-Komeito government,[85] Ishin Secretary-General Fujita Fumitake expressed his disapproval of joining the LDP-Komeito coalition government or cooperating with the CDP, but stated his intention to hold discussions with each party on a policy-by-policy basis.[84]

On 28 October, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki indicated the possibility of voting for the leader of another party in the prime ministerial run-off to be held during the special Diet session, if "it believes that this would lead to the realization of the policies it put forward during the election campaign".[86] Between the two main contenders Ishiba and Noda who were most likely to enter the run-off, Tamaki said the opposition parties could not compete with LDP-Komeito coalition even if the DPP voted for Noda, adding that the party would not rule out ad hoc cooperation on certain issues although not joining the ruling coalition.[87][88]

Assuming the parties opt to try to form an opposition-led coalition, a CDP-DPP-Ishin-JCP-SDP combination would only have 223 seats, 10 shy of a majority, and even if Reiwa Shinsengumi was included, the coalition would be one seat short, meaning cooperation with anti-LDP independents would still be required.

A Kyodo News survey on 29 October showed that 31.5% of the respondents preferred "a new framework through political realignment", followed by 24.6% who favoured "a government centered around the CDP and other opposition parties".[78]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b A Member of the House of Councillors.
  2. ^ Light grey denotes disowned former LDP MPs running independently due to being implicated in the slush fund scandal.
  3. ^ Others: 1–6; Independents: 10–17
  4. ^ LDP-Independents: 5 (5+0)
  5. ^ Others: 3 (1+2); Independents: 14 (14+0)
  6. ^ Independents: 13 (13+0)
  7. ^ LDP-Independents: 5 (5+0)
  8. ^ LDP-Independents: 4 (4+0)
  9. ^ Free Education For All: 2 (1+1); Independents: 14 (14+0)
  10. ^ Free Education For All: 1 (1+0); Independents: 11 (11+0)
  11. ^ Free Education For All: 1 (1+0); Independents: 5 (5+0)
  12. ^ Free Education For All: 3 (1+2); Independents: 6 (6+0)

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  65. ^ "自公大敗、15年ぶり過半数割れ 立民140超・国民4倍増、政局流動化は必至 衆院選". 産経新聞. 28 October 2024.
  66. ^ "大敗の公明衝撃、代表交代も「体制立て直し」 全面対決の大阪では小選挙区全敗". 産経新聞. 28 October 2024.
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  68. ^ "国民 比例代表で名簿不足 3議席が他党へ 衆議院選挙". NHK. 28 October 2024.
  69. ^ "大阪では全19選挙区で維新が完勝、議席を独占". 産経新聞. 28 October 2024.
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  77. ^ "朝日も産経も　新聞各紙が社説で石破首相の退陣を要求　続投を「居座り」と批判". 産経新聞. 29 October 2024.
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  79. ^ "比例300万票減　大阪以外は退潮する維新、トップ２人の温度差と「馬場降ろし」の動き". 産経新聞. 29 October 2024.
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